Fed funds futures: Only 1 more rate hike, in 2nd half of 2016

Traders now expect the Fed to raise rates only once this year, and not until the second half of 2016, according to Fed funds futures contract data from the CME Group.

The first better-than-average chance of a rate hike is now priced in for July, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

It had been June prior to the Fed’s statement Wednesday, in which the central bank left interest rates unchanged and noted it was closely monitoring turmoil in global financial markets.

By the end of the year, traders see the Fed funds rate at 62 basis points, which would imply only one more 25 basis point hike from the current rate.

The last “dot plot” of Federal Open Market Committee rate estimates, released in December, suggested an expectation for four rate hikes this year.